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Laptop Trends 2008/2009

Here at Fix My Laptop we have taken a brief look at some of the major trends emerging in relation to laptops over the next couple of years and have categorized them into:

Component trends
components in laptops and the direction that type of hardware is heading.

Fashion or style trends
the impact of making the laptop a fashion accessory.

Employment trends
employees are going to increasing be expected to own and use their own laptop.

Component Trends

Storage - Bigger Drives

Hard drives have been rising steadily in capacity, and that trend has continued unabated with Hitachi's release of its 500GB TravelStar 5K500. While some have criticized the Hitachi drive because it simply adds a platter and increases the vertical size of the drive to a point where many standard 2.5-inch bays won't be able to accommodate it, that hasn't stopped OEMs like ASUS from putting two 5K500s in the new M70Sr, which Asus bills as the "world's first terabyte notebook." While terabyte capacities are certainly welcome, that's not even the most exciting trend in notebook hard drives.

Storage - Solid State Drives

The biggest development in HDDs is the shift toward Solid State Drives, or SSDs. Because they lack the moving parts found in a traditional hard drive, SSDs are incredibly fast, run much cooler and have a longer lifespan. The catch?  Price. Solid state drives are expensive: a 2.5-inch 16GB SATA SSD hard drive retails for about $450, while a comparable 2.5-inch 250GB SATA traditional HDD can be had for $140. In other words, that's $28/GB for SSD and $0.56/GB for traditional HDD. Plus, the capacity of SSD drives - currently in the 64GB range - is still fairly limiting.

A good example of how SSD drives are being used in notebooks is the Sony VAIO TZ series (VGN-TZ298N/XC to be specific). This 11.1-inch ultraportable features a 64GB Solid State Drive in its default configuration. Being an ultraportable, most of the data will probably be stored elsewhere, so users might not mind the limited storage space. And with an SSD drive, bootup times and loading times are incredibly fast. There's also a large reduction in heat emissions and power consumption, since there are no platters spinning at 5400rpm.

Industry tests of SSDs showed mixed results. SSDs have exceedingly high read speeds, making system boots, application launches, and document loads much faster than with a conventional laptop hard drive. Write speeds aren't any better, however, and the overall performance is just a few percentage points faster than that of regular drives.

Battery savings appear to be minimal, as well.  The value of an SSD may change dramatically in 2009 and beyond, however, as 256GB and larger drives hit the market. The first 256GB drive will wholesale for nearly $6000, but like all storage costs over time, SSD prices will plummet as volume and capacity increase. In 2009, a 64GB drive might run just $200 to $300 over a 5400-rpm standard hard drive, and may boost performance and drop power use further.

Storage -  Hybrid Hard Drives

Hybrid hard-drives have a solid-state "very large cache" and a traditional component. Its one try at overcoming the long boot times of  Windows Vista.

Seagate is now about  to roll them out to the market. Their biggest benefits are power savings and performance, as they work like a huge hard drive cache. But because the solid state portion of the device (they are a hybrid of solid state and magnetic drives) may actually be able to power down for extended periods, they should be vastly more reliable in use as well. Expect to see more on such devices next year.

Optical Drives

The war between Blu-ray and HD-DVD ended when Warner Bros announced recently it was siding with the Blu-ray camp, effectively putting 70% of the Hollywood studios in one corner. Early sales returns calculated since that announcement seem to back up that HD-DVD will not last long in the market place. But note the best way to take full advantage of a Blu-ray optical drive is by getting a monster 20.1-inch multimedia notebook, like the HP Pavilion HDX. The large display allows you to see movies in their full 1080p glory, the way they were meant to be shown. With the recent graphics update to the HDX, it's one of the most powerful laptops you can buy, perfect for  gaming, video editing or just having a fast computer.

There will be more and more Blu-ray optical drives in larger notebooks at increasingly attractive prices. However, given the upswing in video available over the internet and an increasing number of folks who have figured out how to rip DVDs to their hard drives, its tempting to made the prediction that soon we'll see declining interest in optical drives in notebooks. Still, for those that want them, these drives will provide the opportunity to hook your laptop up to a big-screen TV.

Processors

With singe and dual core Intel Atom processors powered a whole new category of laptop; the "netbook" there are many new processor options here and coming for the laptop buyer. Intel has publicly discussed its next two successors to the current 45-nm Penryn chip, the 45-nm Nehalem and the 32-nm Westmere project. Details on the exact nature of these processors are scarce and most limited to what Intel offered at the most recent IDF, but allegedly Nehalem will come in versions in up to 8+ cores and include integrated memory controllers for DDR3 SDRAM. Other improvements include the QuickPath micro architecture which will distribute memory to each processor and high speed point-to-point interconnects. Even less is known about the 32-nm Westmere, other than it's planned to feature 1.9 billion transistors and isn't scheduled for release until 2009.

Screens

LED High Resolution Screens

Increased resolution and color depth has long been the guiding arc in the evolution of laptop screens, but one feature we'll start to see this year is OLED displays on laptops. Sony showed off several OLED monitors at recent Trade Shows, like the 11-inch XEL-1. Granted, the cost was astronomical ($2,500), but the mere fact that Sony is able to build and sell such a brightly lit screen with a mind-boggling contrast (1,000,000:1) in a razor-thin form factor is promising. If the cost ever comes down to realistic levels, you may one day see this kind of display in your notebook.

Second(ary)  Displays

The second display is typically used on the outside of the laptop, and can show information with the lid closed. Initially, only Toshiba with its R400 was unique with this display mode before Dell recently brought out their stunning M1730 gaming notebook with this capability. Asus also has a model W5Fe with a second display screen.

But be that as it may, it won't be until next year before we see a large number of systems with these options in the market. These secondary displays can show you games stats, if you have pending appointments while your laptop is in low-powered mode, and in some cases, even give you quick access to email or instant messaging depending on where they are and how they are configured. Is it a gimmick or something we must have?

Special Screen Coatings

Dell's TrueLife screen, with its promise of a bright, vibrant display, might seem a good option at the time of purchase, but at about $160 for an upgrade to a 17-inch LCD on a business laptop, its benefit is unclear. Dell claims that TrueLife produces a 10 percent boost in contrast, as well as more vivid colors.

Other manufacturers' options, such as Gateway's UltraBright, HP's BrightView, and Toshiba's TruBrite, are similar.

Travelers who frequently work in awkward lighting conditions, where glare, dimness, or reflections abound, would appreciate this $100 to $200 upgrade. The enhanced screen is useful if you intend to watch DVDs or other video on the laptop, too. The screen technology used varies from company to company; and customer preference is mixed as some people prefer the glare free "matt" screens universally used on PC LCD monitors and many business notebooks.

Internet Access - Integrated Mobile Broadband

With 3G wireless internet common now, its accurate to say "the internet is everywhere!" So soon we'll see built-in mobile broadband 3G adapters  rather than the pesky add-on units provided by Optus, Telstra, etc. And hopefully the laptop manufacturers will build a better antenna by using the laptop's case to carry a signal. These inbuilt 3G cards will cost any amount from nothing to $300, but with technology changing rapidly in the cellular world, an integrated, usually mini-PCI-format adapter may be hard to upgrade for faster speeds. Such adapters are rarely user serviceable, and laptop makers will probably roll out better offerings in new laptop models rather that trifle with upgrades to the existing customer base.

Draft-N Wireless

Wi-Fi continues to evolve, but its latest incarnation, draft-n, is likely the fastest flavor we'll have until 2012. Laptop makers were early adopters of this version of the IEEE 802.11n standard, which may change slightly and require firmware and driver upgrades as it moves toward full approval in 2009. Most business laptops still include 802.11g--the 2003-era standard that was itself a big speed boost--as standard equipment or as a downgrade option to reduce cost during configuration of a purchase. Upgrading to draft-n adds from $15 to $40 to the cost of most companies' laptops. (The one notable exception is Apple, which standardized on draft-n for its laptops in October 2006.) The biggest advantage of a draft-n adapter is that transferring large files between similarly equipped computers or to and from a high-speed corporate (or even gigabit SOHO) network takes one-third to one-fifth the time as the task does over 802.11g.

Fashion Trends

We are all familiar with the offerings from Dell of multi coloured laptops, and from Sony the sleek "fashion accessory" models in pink and other colours supported with the "all eyes on you" marketing campaign, Acer and Asus are in the game as well. There are the Ferrari laptops in Red from Acer and Lamborghini laptops in yellow from Asus, but what about the future.

Designer Vivienne Tam's signature red peony prints will grace the sides of HP laptops in the spring of  2009. HP is cashing in on the trend towards the  "digital clutch". "I wanted to give life and color to a computer," Tam said. "Even if you're in the office, you should feel like you're in a garden." The laptop's tiny keyboard is bright red, which is Tam's favorite color. She chose the peony as the theme for her collection of mostly dresses "because it's my favorite flower; it represents prosperity and beauty." Satjiv Chahil, senior vice president of global marketing for Hewlett-Packard, said the collaboration with Tam was intended to appeal to "about half the world's population."  "She brings sex appeal to technology," he said of Tam. "And we bring a little sex appeal to fashion."

New Model Trends

We all recall with a little awe the release of the Asus EEE laptop with its very low price tag and 7" LCD screen. It  began a trend towards low cost ultra-portable laptops that was once the bastion of the Sony and Toshiba $3500 laptops. Will this accelerate and continue?; in a word yes. These are now dubbed as "netbooks".

After a leak from ASUS in August 2008 confirmed the Eee range would reach 23 different units, and company president Jerry Shen has spoken about some of the upcoming models and the segments he expects the Eee PC to occupy.  According to Shen, two new categories - Ultimate and Pro Fashion - will launch this year, each with dual-core Atom processors and increased storage.  A choice of 120GB HDD or 32GB SSD was suggested. Also confirmed  is a dual-core Atom Eee PCs this year. By late September 2008 , the Eee PC S-series is expected to launch with a 10.1-inch 16:9 aspect display with LED backlighting, 4-5hrs battery life and 32GB SSD storage.  ASUS will be targeting the netbook at the "high-end" of the netbook market, with an estimated $700-$900 price tag.

Intel's dual-core Atom 330 processor has been delayed until Q4 2008, but Shen is confident that supplies of the single-core Atom N270 CPU will remain consistent through to late Q2 2009.   Total Eee PC shipments, according to ASUS' predictions, will exceed 1.5-1.6 million units in Q3 2008, and Shen says the company is confident it will achieve its targeted annual shipments of five million units.

So what have Asus's competitors been up to? If Asus expend to sell 5 million units you can be sure that there's a frenzy of catch-up/computing happening.

Here is two examples of what everyone else is up to:

Acer: In May 2008 Acer launched the company's first iteration of Eee PC-competition will be somewhat cheaper than ASUS. In has an  8.9-inch screen laptops will be priced around $350 to $400.  Acer rolled the "Aspire One" off the production lime in June 2008; It came in Linux and Windows XP versions. The entry-level Linux version packs the hugely popular 1.6GHz Intel Atom N270 CPU and 512MB of RAM. Storage was just 8GB of NAND flash memory. The basic Windows XP model uses the same 1.6GHz Atom CPU, but gets 1.5GB of RAM, plus a 120GB mechanical hard drive. The 8.9-inch, 1,024x600-pixel display is a good one and the 1.3 megapixel webcam, wireless is 802.11, which maxes out at 54Mbps.

HP recently released the HP 2133 Mini-Note  which was offered with Linux or  Windows Vista Business/XP Home . It ships with a 1.6Ghz Intel Atom 800 processor, 2GB RAM, 802.11b/g WLAN, Bluetooth 2.0, Gigabit LAN (10/100/1000 NIC), Disk 160GB, SATA or a 12/20GB Solid State Drive, Display  is 8.9″ WXGA and price tag around $1000.

So the trend seems to be unstoppable now towards these sub-$1000 "netbooks".

Employment Trends 

By 2008, in USA it is estimated that 10 percent of companies will require employee-purchased notebooks. Company-owned notebooks are commonly used for personal purposes, such as e-mail, music and videos. Gartner Inc, a global technology trend watcher,  predicts that notebooks will begin to move from company ownership to personal ownership. Since notebook prices have declined dramatically during the past few years, this transition is mostly likely to be managed through the implementation of a notebook allowance, much like car mileage today.

"Transferring notebook ownership to employees does not eliminate the cost of PCs, but shift it to employee benefits and indirect user operational costs," said Leslie

Fiering, research vice president at Gartner. "The payback is removing PC assets from the company books and freeing IT to focus on critical business initiatives."